Round by Round
Round 2 – Dalvin Cook
Breakouts, Studs, Sleepers, Late Round Fliers and more…
Round by Round is a series of articles written about NFL players from every round of your fantasy football draft. I am using their ADP (Average Draft Position – FantasyPros ADP) to determine what round they currently are in, and I am basing this on 12 team leagues. Some of these players you may know, and some you might not know at all. It is our goal to help you make the best decisions in your fantasy football redraft leagues. I’m not necessarily advocating for drafting these players over other players. I am just drawing some attention to players you may overlook because you forgot what they have done or you don’t know much about them to begin with or I just feel like talking about them.
ROUND TWO, GO!
I loved Cook coming out of college into his rookie 2017 campaign, which doesn’t make me special, at all. Everyone loved him last year, but the editorial/collective “We” thought Cook would only be a fill in for Latavius Murray while he was sidelined with an injured. I mean, I didn’t think that was going to be the case, but I am concerned about Latavius taking some meaningful touches away this season because of how well he performed when he was called upon. Cook is a warrior. He’s healthy now, and showing no signs of hesitation or regression from the injury. In his limited NFL sample size of 4 games, he provided some insight into how he will perform at the NFL level. He’s good. I think his floor is top 10 this season.
If you extrapolate Dalvin Cook’s 4 game production out to the end of the season, he would have had:
- 1776 All Purpose Yards (1416 Rushing & 360 receiving)
- 8 Rushing Touchdowns
- 44 Receptions
- 4 Fumbles
I think the fumble projection may be a bit high, as well as the rushing yards, but I do believe he would have had more receiving yards and a few receiving touchdowns, like 3 or 4. So, give or take a few, he was going to be a fantasy force last season, and I see no reason why that wouldn’t be the case again this season.
If you look at where every player ranked at their respective position last season (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017), Cook would have been the RB4 in standard leagues with 233.6 fantasy points, which is an average of 14.6 fantasy points per game. That would have put Cook ahead of Alvin Kamara with 233.6 FP’s, Melvin Gordon with 230.1 points, and only slightly behind Kareem hunt at 242.2 points.
In full point per reception leagues, Cook would have been the RB7 with 277.6 fantasy points (17.35 points per game), which is ahead of LeSean McCoy with 263.6 points and right behind Mark Ingram with 278 points. So, if he did what he did in the first 4 games throughout the season, he would have been really good. A top 7 RB in either formatt, most likely a top 6 in PPR and a top 3-4 in Standard.
Note: The 16 game point extrapolation did not account for bonuses on 40 or 50 plus yard touchdowns or other league specific point systems.
Cook is being drafted in the early 2nd round, as is where he probably should be because of the cloudiness of his injury. Otherwise, he would be in the 1st round, where he will most likely be drafted next season, barring injury…and how they use Latavius Murray because of his success last season. I’m mostly concerned with Murray’s potential Goal line touches.
At least that was the risk with Cook last season; What will Latavius’ role be when he’s healthy at the same time as Cook. Add to Jerick Mckinnon’s potential touches and targets, and you see less value for all 3. It seems to me, based on Cooks performance in 2017, that he would have been the main back with some relief from the other two guys, even when Murray came back, but there’s no way to know because we don’t have any of the infinity stones, and therefore cannot go back in time or change reality. Latavius being a concern for Cooks touches remains the same for me this season, but the good news is that Jerick Mckinnon is on the 49ers and out of the way. So, even with some touches from Latavius Murray, Cook should still be a top 10 plus RB at the end of the season. I will be moving him up after writing this article 🙂
Cook has some nasty slices. He’s always just a hop, skip, and a jump away from a Touchdown. As of now, I draft Cook in this #13 ADP spot, even into the first round if I’m the 9-12th team because he will return on the investment. Draft Cook with confidence. It’s the second round. Most of these guys will do well, but some will get injured, like Cook did last year, and some will bust. There’s no way to know who that will be, but you can play the odds and consider Cook less risky than others who have not been injured recently. That’s how it works, right?